The promo and my 'theories' are behind the cut.
- Someone is not returning (according to the preview)
- Gibbs has to make a tough decision that will send shock waves around NCIS
- Shane Brennan wants to keep the fans guessing and arguing and in shock all summer
- Shane Brennan has also said Gibbs doesn't lose a team member, but he does
So my brain went:
- Ziva not returning is way too obvious.
- That leaves Gibbs, Vance or DiNozzo.
- I know popular choice would be that it's Vance who stays, but I just don't see that happening - plus, how would that tie in with the 'huge shock waves'? Unless the SecNav has found a way to use Vance and that's all connected. But I feel for 'shock wave' it has to be either DiNozzo or Gibbs who stays. Of course the whole 'not come home' could be one of their red herrings.
- We see from the promo clip that Gibbs apparently doubts that DiNozzo had to kill Rivkin.
- We know Director David will not be at all happy, and that's putting it mildly.
- Vance isn't happy.
- We also apparently see Daddy David order Ziva to finish what Rivkin started, followed immediately by her knocking DiNozzo to the ground, putting her foot on him and pulling a gun and hear a shot. Now we know only too well that these clips are cut for 'best effect' so I'm not sure we can assume that Daddy has told her to kill DiNozzo. And even if he had, I would struggle to believe she could do that. Although it would certainly be a shock - but not based on a Gibbs decision.
Thus I give you:
What if Daddy David insists on DiNozzo standing some kind of 'trial' for killing Rivkin? And in order to keep relationships between the US and Mossad civil, Gibbs (because Vance in effect leaves it to him to decide) takes the decision that DiNozzo has to stay in Israel and 'stand trial'.
Now that would send a huge shock around NCIS.
And to be honest it would tie in with the not lose/lose bit, if you take that literally for just the end of S6. In effect DiNozzo is still around, albeit in Israel, so Gibbs has physically lost him from the team, but as far as the team are concerned he's still part of the family.
The other wacky idea is that Gibbs takes responsibility as team leader and as the person who told DiNozzo to 'stay on it' and he offers to stay in Israel and 'stand trial'.
That would also send a huge shock around NCIS.
And it would tie in with the not lose/lose a team member as in effect Gibbs is 'lost' to the team, but he himself hasn't 'lost' anyone. I did say my mind goes into weird twists at times.
The third scenario that came to mind is possibly even wackier. Whatever Rivkin was doing needs to carry on being done and it's imperative it's done by a man. Daddy David feels it's only poetic justice, as it's very, very risky, that DiNozzo take on the job rather than risk another Mossad officer and Gibbs agrees.
Again shock waves.
And this one it would tie in perfectly with the 'Gibbs doesn't lose a team member, but he does'. And it would tie in with Daddy's 'you will finish what Michael started'.
Problems with the scenarios
1. Unless MW wants out of NCIS and this is the way they choose to do it it means that SB is going to pull the 'oh, look someone has left in the season finale' followed by 'oh, look there they are back in the first/second episode of the new season' for the third time. And he'll have done it twice in succession.
But there is something else to be considered Shane Brennan has also said that no one dies at the end of S6. However, he also promises us a shock in the first few seconds of S7 with people going 'did what I saw happen really happen?'. So what if someone, DiNozzo, does actually die at the beginning of S7?
2. The main problem with the second of those scenarios in particular is that I cannot believe NCIS will go on without MH. Which means SB is going to pull the 'oh, look someone has left in the season finale' followed by 'oh, look there they are back in the first/second episode of the new season' for the third time. And he'll have done it twice in succession.
3. Other than it would probably mean MW wouldn't be in several episodes to begin with, I can't actually see a problem with this as such. Well apart from the fact that would Mossad want a non-Mossad person doing Mossad work?
And then there's the over-riding problem with all three: Ziva returning to the US and NCIS. Could she after this? Would Daddy let her? Would Gibbs want her? Would she want to? Would the SecNav allow it?
So that's quite a stumbling block, but I still feel it's so obvious if Ziva is the one to stay behind. Unless, she says thinking further, in fact the shock is that Gibbs decides he doesn't want Ziva working with them. However, his reason is to protect her, based on the conversation he and the SecNav had in his basement, because there is more to the whole Vance thing than meets the eye and leaving her in Israel keeps her safe. Again although she wouldn't be on the team any longer, she'd still be part of the family - at least to his mind. I'm not sure how DiNozzo would feel.
DiNozzo stays in Israel and actually does some work for Mossad. We see him apparently killed in the opening episode of S7, but he isn't dead, it's all part of some elaborate cover. However, he does not return to NCIS in the first couple of episodes. But we possibly/probably see him.